Why are Americans paying over $4 a gallon at the pump right now? If you ask President Donald Trump, it is not his month-old war with Iran that is to blame. It is Europe.
Transatlantic relations just hit a breathtaking new low. Frustrated by a lack of international backup for the U.S.-led offensive against Iran, Trump took to Truth Social to air some massive grievances. He essentially told European allies struggling with fuel shortages to go to the blockaded Strait of Hormuz and "just take" their own oil.
He didn't stop there. He openly suggested the U.S. might not bother honoring its NATO commitments anymore. "Why would we be there for them?" he asked. "If they're not there for us."
It is a classic display of the transactional foreign policy we have come to expect from this administration. But this time, the stakes are staggeringly high. By demanding that allies join a war they weren't consulted on, Trump is actively fracturing the most powerful military alliance in modern history.
The Core of the Dispute
The immediate trigger for this latest public meltdown was a series of snubs from key European players.
France reportedly blocked Israeli planes carrying American military supplies from using its airspace. Italy turned down a last-minute request for U.S. bombers involved in the campaign to land at a base in Sicily. Spain has been loudly condemning the conflict as illegal and keeping its airspace strictly off-limits to U.S. warplanes since day one.
Even the United Kingdom, traditionally the most reliable military partner for Washington, is keeping its hands clean. While Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government allowed the U.S. to use British bases for what it calls "defensive operations" to clear missile sites, it has flatly refused to join the actual offensive decapitation campaign against the Iranian regime.
Trump's response to this lack of enthusiasm was characteristically blunt. He basically told the UK and France that they need to start fighting for themselves because the U.S. won't be there to bails them out anymore.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Rift
The narrative coming out of the White House is that European allies are being cowards. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed this, arguing that the U.S. has done the heavy lifting to neutralize the Iranian threat and it's time for other countries to step up and help reopen the global shipping lanes.
But that is a gross oversimplification. Europe isn't sitting this out because they are scared. They are sitting it out because they think the strategy is reckless.
European leaders are looking at a conflict with no clear endgame. They weren't warned before the opening strikes on February 28. Now, they are expected to send their own naval forces into a shooting gallery in the Persian Gulf to fix a crisis they didn't start.
There is a massive difference between a collective defense pact like NATO and a coalition of the willing for an offensive war of choice. NATO was built to protect member territories from being attacked. It was never intended to be a blank check for the U.S. to drag a dozen other countries into a Middle Eastern conflict without prior consultation. Expecting absolute subservience on theater-wide offensive operations is not how an alliance works.
The Economic Reality Trump Is Ignoring
Let's look at the numbers. Spot prices for Brent crude oil have soared past $107 a barrel since this war kicked off. Iran successfully choked off the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that handles roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply during peacetime.
Trump's solution? Tell the Europeans to build up some "delayed courage" and forcefully reopen the strait themselves.
That is incredibly disconnected from military reality. The Strait of Hormuz is not a toll booth you can just push through. It is a highly contested, narrow body of water lined with Iranian anti-ship missile batteries and drone launch sites. Forcing it open while active combat is still raging would require a massive, sustained naval campaign. Expecting European navies—which have spent the last few years heavily focused on aiding Ukraine and rebuilding their own domestic stockpiles—to just execute a "simple military maneuver" to fix global oil prices is a total fantasy.
The Massive Geopolitical Cost
By throwing around threats to abandon NATO, the administration is playing directly into the hands of Western adversaries.
Think about it from the perspective of Eastern Europe. Countries like Poland and the Baltic states rely heavily on the ironclad promise of NATO's Article 5 for their survival against Russian aggression. When the U.S. President openly muses about ditching that promise because Spain won't let bombers use its airbases for a Middle East campaign, it sends a wave of panic through the entire alliance.
European capitals are already adapting, but not in the way Trump wants. They are accelerating plans to build a security architecture that doesn't rely on American design. They are pushing for a "Europeanized" NATO and funding the lion's share of arms to Ukraine themselves because U.S. aid was cut off.
The structural weakening of the Western alliance isn't some distant threat. It's happening right now. You can't run a global superpower alliance like a mob protection racket where you pull your support if a client doesn't help you fight someone in another neighborhood.
If the U.S. continues to treat its closest allies with public contempt, it will eventually find itself standing entirely alone. And in a deeply volatile world, that is a terrifying place to be.
If you are following the fallout of the conflict, watch how G7 and NATO ministers handle the upcoming July summit in Ankara. That will be the real test of whether this damage can be repaired or if the transatlantic alliance is truly broken. For now, expect fuel prices to remain high and diplomatic cables to remain incredibly tense.
