The headlines are predictable. A former official from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Mohsen Rezaee, makes a sweeping claim that the Strait of Hormuz "will remain closed" or is under total Iranian hegemony. The Western media cycles the quote, oil speculators twitch, and the "lazy consensus" settles in: we are one bad afternoon away from a global energy collapse.
It is a lie. Not just a tactical exaggeration, but a fundamental misunderstanding of how power and physics work in the 21st century.
If you believe the Strait of Hormuz is a simple "off switch" for the global economy that Iran can flip at will, you have been bought and sold by IRGC propaganda. The reality is that the Strait is not a door; it is a lung. If Iran chokes it, they stop breathing first.
The Geography of Fear vs. The Reality of Firepower
The most common misconception is that "closing" the Strait requires a physical blockade of ships. It doesn't. In the minds of pundits, a few sunken tankers or a swarm of fast-attack craft creates a permanent "no-go" zone.
I have watched analysts stare at maps and point to the 21-mile width of the passage at its narrowest point as if it were a mountain pass in the 1800s. It isn't. Modern naval warfare is defined by distributed lethality. While Iran possesses a massive arsenal of anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) like the Noor and Ghadir, the idea that they can sustain a closure against a coordinated international response is a fantasy.
A closure is not a binary state. It is a cost-benefit calculation. To "close" the Strait, Iran must achieve sea denial. To maintain that denial, they have to survive the immediate counter-battery fire from every carrier strike group and regional airbase within a thousand miles. They can't. They can cause a week of chaos. They can cause insurance premiums to skyrocket. But they cannot "keep it closed."
The Suicide Pact Nobody Mentions
Here is the data point the "sky is falling" articles conveniently skip: Iran is more dependent on the Strait of Hormuz than any of its neighbors.
While Saudi Arabia has the East-West Pipeline (Petroline) capable of moving 5 million barrels per day to the Red Sea, and the UAE has the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) bypassing the Strait to Fujairah, Iran’s main export terminals—Kharg Island—are tucked deep inside the Persian Gulf.
If the Strait closes, Iran’s economy doesn't just stagnate; it implodes. They would be blockading their own primary source of hard currency. Imagine a scenario where a shopkeeper boards up his only front door to spite the street, while his competitors have already built back exits. That is the Iranian strategy.
Mohsen Rezaee knows this. The IRGC leadership knows this. When they talk about closure, they aren't talking to the US Navy. They are talking to their own base and trying to scare the European energy markets into concessions. It is a theatrical performance, not a military doctrine.
The Asymmetric Fallacy
Pundits love to talk about "swarming tactics." They envision hundreds of small IRGC boats overwhelming a billion-dollar destroyer. It makes for great TV.
But I’ve seen the technical specs on the latest Aegis combat system upgrades. I have talked to the officers who run the simulations. Swarming works in a vacuum. In the real world, the Strait of Hormuz is the most heavily surveilled piece of water on the planet. The "surprise" element required for a successful swarm vanished in the 1980s.
Today, the moment those engines start in Bandar Abbas, they are tracked. The moment a missile canister opens, it is targeted. The "asymmetric advantage" is a diminishing return when your opponent has persistent overhead surveillance and long-range precision fires. Iran's naval strategy relies on the threat of the swarm, because the actual deployment of the swarm results in the total destruction of their naval assets in under 72 hours.
Why Oil Markets Stopped Caring
If the threat were real, oil would be at $150 a barrel every time a general in Tehran had a bad dream. It isn't. The market has priced in the "Hormuz Hysteria."
Traders have realized that the geopolitical risk of a permanent closure is near zero. Why? Because China.
China is the largest buyer of Iranian "shadow" oil. If Iran closes the Strait, they aren't just hitting the "Great Satan" in Washington; they are cutting the throat of their only remaining superpower patron in Beijing. Do you honestly believe the IRGC will jeopardize its relationship with the CCP to win a tactical skirmish in the Gulf?
The Strait stays open because China demands it stays open. The IRGC can bluster all they want for the state-run cameras, but they aren't going to bite the hand that feeds them while their domestic economy is already on life support.
The Invisible War is Already Over
We are looking for a "big bang" event—a dramatic closure—while missing the fact that the conflict has already shifted. The IRGC doesn't need to close the Strait to exert influence. They use "gray zone" tactics: limpet mines, drone strikes on tankers, and cyber-attacks.
These are the tools of a power that knows it cannot win a conventional fight. By focusing on the "Strait Closure" narrative, the media is falling for a 40-year-old distraction. While we debate the closing of the shipping lanes, the IRGC is busy entrenching its influence through proxies in Yemen and Iraq. The Strait is the shiny object they wave in your left hand while the right hand is busy elsewhere.
Stop Asking if They Can Close It
The question "Can Iran close the Strait?" is the wrong question. It’s like asking if a man with a grenade can "close" a crowded room. Yes, for a few seconds, until the grenade goes off.
The real question is: "Why are we still pretending this is a viable military option for Tehran?"
It is a bluff. It is a desperate attempt to maintain relevance in a region that is slowly building the infrastructure to render the Strait of Hormuz irrelevant. From the IMEC corridor to the expansion of Red Sea ports, the world is moving on.
The IRGC is shouting at the tide, hoping you don't notice the water is already receding. They are trapped in a 1979 mindset, wielding a 1980s threat, against a 2026 reality.
If they were actually going to do it, they wouldn't be talking about it. The fact that they are citing ex-officials to scream it from the rooftops is the only proof you need that the Strait is staying exactly as it is: open, vulnerable, and completely essential to the survival of the very regime that threatens it.
Sell the fear. Buy the reality. The Strait isn't closing.
